‘True strength’: China lauds India as economy marches past Japan to emerge world’s 4th largest

India has officially overtaken Japan to claim the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy, with projections suggesting it could surpass Germany and move into third place by 2028.

According to the government’s year-end economic review, India’s GDP now stands at approximately $4.18 trillion and is expected to grow to $7.3 trillion by 2030, placing it just behind China and the United States.

In line with this, China has formally congratulated India on this economic milestone. Yu Jing, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in India, praised India’s achievement. In a tweet, she wrote: “Delighted to know that India is poised to surpass Japan to become the world’s 4th largest economy. India’s rise shows that true strength comes from facing history honestly, learning from it, and taking responsibility for the future.”

Delighted to know that India🇮🇳 is poised to surpass Japan🇯🇵 to become the world’s 4th largest economy 📈

India’s rise shows that true strength comes from facing history honestly, learning from it, and taking responsibility for the future. 📜➡🚀#India #GlobalEconomy… pic.twitter.com/RLRK1gt08P

— Yu Jing (@ChinaSpox_India) December 31, 2025

Strong domestic growth and exports

India’s recent growth has been robust. The country recorded 8.2% GDP growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025–26, the highest in six quarters.

Exports also remain strong, with merchandise exports reaching $38.13 billion in November 2025, driven by engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products.

Analysts attribute this performance to healthy domestic demand, particularly private consumption, combined with ongoing reforms and favorable credit flows. The government has described this period as a rare “Goldilocks” moment, meaning high growth paired with low inflation.

Despite these gains, India faces significant challenges.

GDP per capita remains low at $2,694 in 2024, far below Japan and Germany. With a population surpassing 1.4 billion, creating high-quality jobs for millions of young graduates remains a critical priority. India’s long-term vision is ambitious: by 2047, the centenary of independence, the country aims to achieve high middle-income status, leveraging its demographic advantage and expanding economy to secure sustainable growth for decades to come.