More from India less from China: How politics is changing America’s import basket

India has seen a modest rise in its share of US imports in 2025, while China’s position in several key segments has eroded significantly, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

The shift in trade patterns reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly policies pursued by the administration of US President Donald Trump, which have impacted China’s dominance and opened up opportunities for countries like India, Taiwan, and Switzerland.

From January to May 2025, India’s share of US imports rose to 3.1 per cent, up from 2.9 per cent during the same period last year. In contrast, China’s share saw a 2.7 percentage point drop. Switzerland emerged as a top gainer with a 3.3 percentage point increase, followed by gains for the European Union and Taiwan. Mexico and Canada also registered losses, Times Of India reported.

The reconfiguration of import sources is particularly visible in the advanced technology products segment, where China’s share plunged from 14.5 per cent in the first five months of 2024 to 5.8 per cent in the corresponding period this year.

Taiwan saw its share jump from 9.2 per cent to 15.8 per cent, while Mexico climbed to 14.7 per cent, up 2.3 percentage points. India, too, made gains, increasing its share from 2.3 per cent to 3.5 per cent of US imports in this high-value category.

Officials noted that China’s share in the electronics segment halved to 11 per cent between June 2024 and May 2025. India’s share in the same period grew from 3.5 per cent to 7.2 per cent, buoyed by strong performance in mobile phone and solar cell exports. Vietnam and Mexico also benefited from the realignment of electronics supply chains.

Textiles offer a similar story. China’s share fell sharply from 27 per cent in June 2024 to 14% by May 2025. India increased its share from 9 per cent to 12 per cent in the same timeframe, with Vietnam capturing 18 per cent, up from 14 per cent. The shift underscores the growing traction of South and Southeast Asian exporters in low-cost, high-volume sectors once dominated by Chinese firms.

“India’s apparel exports data to the US underscores the highly price-sensitive nature of the American market. Even marginal price increases prompt sourcing shifts, reflecting the intense competition in the market. In this context, tariff reduction under the India-US trade agreement becomes critical, as it will significantly improve India’s price competitiveness and enable deeper market penetration across key apparel segments and help us build on the impressive growth of 13 per cent registered during 2024-25,” said Mithileshwar Thakur, secretary general of Apparel Export Promotion Council.

However, the gains are not uniform across sectors. India saw a marginal increase in farm goods exports to the US, but its share of gems and jewellery as well as chemicals declined. Government officials acknowledged that the imposition of a 25 per cent additional tariff on automobiles and components has impacted Indian exporters. Products such as tractors, motorcycles, and mopeds have seen reduced demand.

“So far the stocks with stores in the US have helped them meet the demand but everyone is waiting for clarity on tariffs. Orders will be based on tariff advantage that a country enjoys. We are hoping that India and the US can agree on a package and we can get a good deal as demand from American consumers remains strong,” said Colin Shah, managing director of Kama Jewelry, a large exporter.

The evolving trade landscape is being closely watched by Indian exporters, who hope that the ongoing negotiations with Washington will result in tariff relief and help consolidate recent gains.