Why is India’s fast-tracking of Chenab dam project alarming Pakistan?

India is accelerating hydropower construction on the Chenab river.

With the Indus Waters Treaty currently in suspension, New Delhi has moved ahead with multiple long-pending projects in Jammu and Kashmir, led by the Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project.

Together with Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, Ratle and Dulhasti Stage-II, these projects are influencing the landscape of the Chenab basin — a development Pakistan views as a direct threat to its water security.

How Sawalkote project helps India

India has formally initiated work on the Rs 5,129 crore Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab river in Jammu and Kashmir.

According to documents accessed by News18, the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Limited (NHPC)
invited construction bids on February 5, marking a decisive step towards execution.

The project spans the Udhampur and Ramban districts and carries an estimated construction timeline of approximately nine years.

The internal documentation states that “Construction methodology and selection of equipment have been planned to commission the project as early as possible.”

Environmental clearance for the project was granted in October last year by an expert committee of the Union environment ministry, following India’s decision to suspend participation in the Indus Waters Treaty framework. With this clearance in place, NHPC moved swiftly to the bidding stage.

The paperwork further notes that while initial mobilisation must be completed before major works begin, planning has already accounted for year-round construction.

Underground activities are expected to continue through all seasons, while surface-level work will follow a variable schedule depending on weather conditions.

Sawalkote is designed as a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project with a total installed capacity of 1,856 MW. Development will take place in two distinct stages. The first phase involves a 1,406 MW plant, followed by a 450 MW facility in the second phase.

Geographically, the project occupies a critical stretch of the Chenab river. It lies downstream of the Baglihar hydropower project and upstream of the Salal dam, placing it squarely within an already heavily engineered river corridor.

This positioning strengthens India’s cascade of infrastructure along the Chenab, allowing sequential control over water movement between projects.

Construction planning documents specify how work will be staggered across seasons, stating, “Available working season in a year in the project area shall be 12 months for all underground works & for surface works with full progress rate during non-monsoon period and with 50 er cent progress rate in monsoon period.”

This design allows progress to continue even during adverse weather, reinforcing the government’s push to minimise delays.

How other Chenab projects are aiding New Delhi’s hydropower strategy

Sawalkote is not an isolated development. It forms part of a broader directive issued by the central government to fast-track multiple hydropower projects across the Chenab river system. Officials have been given firm deadlines to ensure timely completion.

Under this plan, the Pakal Dul and Kiru projects are scheduled for commissioning by December 2026.

The Kwar project is expected to be completed by March 2028, while construction on the Ratle project has been ordered to proceed at an accelerated pace, with completion targeted by 2028.

These projects have been classified by the Centre as strategically important, particularly in the context of India stepping away from treaty-based constraints on western rivers. Several of them have drawn sustained attention from Pakistan, which has closely monitored construction milestones and river diversion activities.

Pakal Dul

Among all the Chenab projects, Pakal Dul stands out for its scale and functional significance. Located in the Kishtwar region, the 1,000 MW project features a 167-metre-high dam, making it the tallest dam structure in India.

Pakal Dul is also India’s first storage project on a western river that flows into Pakistan. This feature distinguishes it from purely run-of-the-river schemes.

Once operational, the project will provide India with the capacity to regulate the timing of water releases — a capability Islamabad has consistently viewed with concern.

The project was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2018 and is now slated for commissioning by December 2026. Once online, it will become a central node in India’s Chenab infrastructure network.

Kiru and Kwar

Running parallel to Pakal Dul is the Kiru hydropower project, also located in Kishtwar. Kiru is a run-of-the-river dam with a height of 135 metres.

Its strategic relevance lies in its placement between upstream and downstream installations, strengthening India’s cumulative control over river flow patterns.

The Centre has assigned Kiru the same December 2026 commissioning deadline as Pakal Dul, signalling that both projects are intended to become operational in close succession.

The Kwar project, featuring a 109-metre-high dam, achieved a major milestone in January 2024 when the Chenab was successfully diverted to enable construction activities.

This diversion was closely followed in Pakistan, where it was seen as a tangible demonstration of India’s expanding physical presence on the river. The project is now scheduled for commissioning by March 2028.

Ratle and Dulhasti Stage-II

The Ratle hydropower project has remained one of the most contentious developments on the Chenab. With a planned capacity of 850 MW and a 133-metre-high dam structure, Ratle has faced repeated objections from Pakistan, particularly concerning its spillway design.

Construction momentum increased last year when the Chenab was diverted through tunnels to facilitate building activity. The project is currently targeted for completion by 2028.

Beyond Ratle, India
is also advancing Dulhasti Stage-II after receiving environmental clearance in December.

Pakistan has objected to this approval, arguing that it was not informed about the clearance process. Indian authorities have rejected this claim, maintaining that due procedures were followed.

Why Pakistan sees the Chenab projects as a strategic threat

Pakistan’s concerns stem from the Chenab’s central role within the Indus basin. The river is one of the primary sources of water for the country’s agriculture sector, which supports nearly 90 per cent of Pakistan’s food production.

Reports note that approximately nine out of ten Pakistanis depend on water that originates in Indian territory.

Nearly three-fourths of Pakistan’s total water supply comes from western rivers that flow through India, making upstream developments politically and strategically sensitive.

Islamabad has accused New Delhi of violating the Indus Waters Treaty
and of “weaponising” water resources.

Senior Pakistani leaders, including Pakistan Peoples Party senator Sherry Rehman,
have described India’s actions as a grave infringement of Pakistan’s recognised water rights.

Pakistani officials argue that the Indus Waters Treaty cannot be suspended unilaterally and insist that Indian projects on the Chenab must continue to comply with treaty provisions.

Pakistani media has also linked environmental clearances, including Dulhasti Stage-II, to alleged fluctuations in river inflows, claiming these threaten agriculture during the Rabi sowing season.

Pakistan has alsp raised alarms about the sudden holding and release of water upstream. According to Islamabad, this has resulted in erratic inflows in rivers such as the Chenab and Jhelum, posing risks to food security and rural livelihoods.

India has not accepted these allegations, reiterating that its hydropower projects are run-of-the-river in nature and do not involve large-scale water storage, except where permitted.

India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty in April last year
following the terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people.

Under the original 1960 treaty, India was granted control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — while Pakistan received the bulk of waters from the western rivers, including the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

India retained limited consumption rights and unrestricted non-consumptive use on these western rivers.

Environmental groups have also flagged long-term concerns linked to climate change and glacial retreat. The Chenab originates at the confluence of the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, before flowing into Jammu and Kashmir.

Studies estimate that glacial volume in the Chenab basin declined by 33.3 per cent between the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty and 2004-05. This loss has implications for river flows, particularly because a significant portion of the Chenab’s water comes from glacial melt.

Environmentalists have also cautioned that the Chenab basin is already densely populated with hydropower projects, raising concerns about cumulative ecological stress, altered flow regimes, and climate-driven variability.

Reflecting these risks, the environmental clearance granted to Sawalkote includes a requirement for the developer to prepare a river conservation strategy that accounts for the combined impact of multiple projects across the basin.

With inputs from agencies